Anatoly’s Predictions for 2017
Anatoly’s 2016 Prediction Calibration Results
Anatoly’s return to Russia, and his article Go Back to Russia about his detractors who accused him of defending a totalitarian regime while living in the comfort of the West
How Anatoly’s objective is to provide a balanced and accurate portrayal of Russia
Anatoly’s observations on how Moscow and Russia have changed since he was last there a decade ago
Anatoly’s observation that Moscow has become more civil, but also more diverse, despite still be around 90% Russian Russia’s Demographics, a rise in the Russian birth rate, and Russia’s Muslim population
Anatoly’s interview with Zvezda TV about Trump and the relationship between the US and Russia
How Russians have a more positive view of the US than of the EU(latest Levada poll at: 60%), and generally hold a more positive view of Trump than the rest of the world
Anatoly’s prediction that the Alt Right acrimoniously splits into Trumpists and anti-Trumpists, a prediction that dates back to to May 2016
The fascinating Putin/Trump parallel, how Putin’s Solovyev/Starikov are Trump’s Milo/Cernovich, while the ethnats have at best a “mixed” relationship with them
Anatoly’s point that an American Nationalist can get a long better with Russia than an American Globalist, and how the main battle in the future will be between Nationalism and Globalism
How Trump has divided the Neocons
Anatoly’s prediction a year ago that Assad will stay in power in Syria, and his predictions about wars in the future
The short term decline in migrant arrivals by sea into Europe, Islamisation, and the long term effects of migration, including a European exodus out of Europe
Anatoly’s London Impressions, the Minority status of the British in London, the recent building boom, and 60’s futurist architecture including Centre Point and the BT Tower
The Transit systems of Moscow’s Metro and London’s Underground
The FIRE economy, the effects of the financial sector on the economy, and how the FIRE sector takes away cognitive capital from more productive endeavours
Dating patterns, the K/R Selection theory, and Pilleater’s comment on Roger Devlin’s speech on Sexual Competition
It is no secret that gambling has come a long way since the 1930s. You wouldn’t have found people playing casino games on sites like find fair casinos back in the day. But of course, times change and nothing stays the same.
Online gambling and websites such as www.norgescasino.com/ have completely changed the betting landscape. But what was really going on behind the scenes in some of the iconic Las Vegas casinos back in the day? Lynn Zook runs the website Classic Las Vegas, and Produced an hour-long, first person narrative documentary on the history of Las Vegas entitled “The Story of Classic Las Vegas.” Of course, the story of these classic casinos lives on today through modern gaming sites like vera john slots where the classic games one would expect to see in the various casinos of Vegas are there for all to enjoy.
Robert Stark and co-host Pilleater talk to Charles Marohn. Charles is a Professional Engineer (PE) licensed in the State of Minnesota and a member of the American Institute of Certified Planners (AICP). Chuck is the Founder and President of Strong Towns. He has a Bachelor’s degree in Civil Engineering from the University of Minnesota’s Institute of Technology and a Masters in Urban and Regional Planning from the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey Institute.
Topics:
How Charles’s background in urban planning exposed him to the problems of sprawl development
Charles’s books Thoughts on Building Strong Towns, Volume 1 & Volume II
The fiscal unsustainability of sprawl development
Charles’ point that the key factor in urbanism is Incremental Development
Charles’s point that cities must be viewed as ecosystems
The “build it they will come” fallacy, and how traditionally massive infrastructure projects were designed to serve existing population centers(ex.Roman Aqueducts)
How pre-automobile cities tend to be the most viable
Nassim Taleb’s Antifragile theory, and how it relates to urbanism The Density Question, Charles point that density should neither be fetishized nor seen as inherently bad, but must take into account incremental development
How cities such as New York and San Francisco have value independent of their economies, while places like the Silicon Valley would become unviable if their industries collapsed
Zoning laws and land use regulations
The movement to Retrofit Suburbia, how it’s a step in the right direction, but has it’s limitations
How cities will contract in the future, with people living in both cities and towns, but that it’s the space in between that’s unviable
Micro Apartments
Political divides, and how when it comes to planning issues on a local level, people tend to be more pragmatic than dogmatic
The Public vs. Private sector role in infrastructure, and how Charles’s point that things that are high risk should be in the private sector, and low risk in the public sector(ex. Wall Street baillouts)
The role of the government in historic preservation and protecting the environment
Housing and affordable family formation
The Hollywood imagery and outsider stereotypes of LA
The history of LA
How LA’s urban core is spread out over a large geographic area from Santa Monica on the Coast to Downtown LA
Robert’s disclaimer that the photos capture the best of LA, but that most of the spaces in between are unappealing due to the cities sprawl
LA’s transit system
South Central LA
West Hollywood, and Rabbit’s experience living there
Downtown LA, the gentrification of the historic core, the grittiness and vintage signage of Broadway, and the Serial Killers Who Haunted The Cecil Hotel
Downtown LA’s architecture including John Portman’s Bonaventure Hotel, and the the 80’s Art Deco revivalHome Savings Building where Charles Lincoln worked
Beverly Hills, the 80’s futurist Rodeo Collection, the “Vaporwave” Roman Fountain , and the the 70 futurist/late modernistRoxbury Plaza Century City, which originally had a 60’s futurist aesthetic, was the the film location of Conquest of the Planet of the Apes, and the Century City Mall
1980’s Malls including the Beverly Center(Original image), Westside Pavilion, which reminds Pilleater of the game Myst, and the renovation of those malls which ruined their aesthetic
Historic preservation trends starting with demolition of the Art Deco Richfield Tower in Downtown LA, to the lack of preservation for 80’s architecture today
New architecture inspired by past styles including the new Streamline ModerneUnder construction Beverly Hilton tower, 70’s futurist inspired renderings for skyscrapers, and Rabbit’s observation that many apartments are being retrofited in mid-century modern styles
Santa Monica, the waterfront, architecture including the Art Deco Clock Tower, and Santa Monica NIMBY Restriction on heights
The Interactive Cafe, which is one of the last surviving independent businesses in downtown Santa Monica, and Pilleater’s point that it has a Cyberpunk aesthetic
The high cost of housing in LA, even in unappealing areas
The San Fernando Valley, which was traditionally home to LA’s middle class
Demographic trends, the destruction of the white middle class, gentrification of the urban core, and new suburban ghettos in the desert
Rabbit’s point about SWPLs he met in LA who look down on the suburban middle class
The Alt Left dilemma between identifying with SWPL Culture, and urbanist aesthetics, and supporting white middle class identitarianism, which often lacks strong aesthetic visions
Robert Stark and co-host Pilleater talk to Anatoly Karlin. He blogs at The Unz Review
Topics include:
Anatoly’s article at the Unz Review about his American Decade
Why Anatoly is leaving the United States and going back to Russia
How the United States is becoming more like Europe
T.R. Reid’s book The United States of Europe, where he argued that the EU was emerging as a superpower rivaling the US, but has latter been disproved
How during the Bush era Americans perceived Europeans as “Cheese Eating Surrender Moneys,” but latter Sarkozy became the architect of the war in Libya, and arming Syrian rebels
Another element of America’s Europeanization is the decline in social conservatism, the surge in support for gay marriage, and drug legalization
Anatoly’s political views, which are fairly socially liberal(except for rejecting political correctness, and radical feminism), economically centrist, and closest to Rabbit’s AltLeft U.S. Millennials More Likely to Support Censoring Offensive Speech, especially among university students who are the future elites
The decline in American fertility rates toward European levels
How American politics now resembles Europe in the sense that there are five distinct blocs: Clinton democrats, Sanders socialists, Rubio/Bush etablishment conservatives, Cruz Bible-bashers, and Trump nationalists.
Anatoly’s pre election prediction article US Elections 2016: Let’s MAGA, Not War, and Trump’s support in the rust belt
Trump’s economic policies as a hybrid of supply side economics, and economic nationalism, and the similarities to Putin’s economic policies in Russia
The GINI index of income inequality
The pros and cons of economic automation, and the basic income
Transhumanism, Zoltan Istvan, and his book The Transhumanist Wager
The Bay Area where Anatoly spent most of his time in the US, and how it’s pretty much ideal, but also the most expensive macro-region of the US
California is also home to Ron Unz, Steve Sailer, as well as the “Alt Left” movement(the tiny group of thinkers combining leftist economics with HBD, sane views on gender relations, and a penchant for futurism )
The futurist scene in the Bay Area including Scott Jackisch’s Bay Area Futurists meetup, Health Extensions Salons, Mike Johnson’s Qualia Research Institute, Effective Altruism, and the “techno” faction of NRx
Mass Transit, Bay Area Rapid Transit, how older cities tend to have more integrated transit systems, and why conservatives oppose mass transit
Global Warming, Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius who discovered climate change, debunking climate change deniers, and whether it will benefit arctic regions such as Russia
Observations on other American cities including Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Chicago, New York, Washington DC, and Pittsburgh
Anatoly’s experience ridding across the nation on Amtrak
Architecture: Skyscrapers, Brutalism, architect John Portman’s 70’s Neofuturism, and Rabbit’s ideal city based on the film Logan’s run
America’s great wilderness and National Park System
Robert Stark, joined with Rabbit, and Alex von Goldstein talk about his recent trip to the SF Bay Area
Topics include:
Robert’s departing point Santa Barbara, which is a nice laid back coastal town, but under the cultural influence of LA Robert Stark’s podcast with Bay Area Guy about his last trip to SF
Robert met up with Bay Area Guy and Anatoly Karlin in Berkeley
How like Robert, Alex, and Rabbit, Bay Area Guy and Anatoly Karlin exist on the periphery of the Alt-Right(ex.The Radical Center, Alt Left)
The Cultural Leftist legacy of Berkeley, and how Anatoly Karlin spoke at Richard Spencer’s event at UC Berkeley
How places that are politically correct often produce interesting dissident thinkers
How Berkeley is on a scale similar to European cities(ex. small, compact, dense and walkable)
How transplants often adopt the stereotypes of cities
Demographic trends in the Bay Area, how the traditional white middle class is being pushed out, but also working class Blacks and Hispanics are being priced out through gentrification
Asian culture and immigration in the Bay Area, and Asian Majority Cities, including Daly City, where Robert stayed
The seedy Tenderloin District, urban grittiness, and how it reminded Robert of the film Taxi Driver
The film Dirty Harry
The BART(Bay Area Rapid Transit) System, which has a 70’s futurist aesthetic, and has had issue with crime
The film Fruitvale Station about a Police incident on BART in Oakland
The 70’s futurist Embarcadero Center, designed by architect John Portman, and the importance of having urban oasis’s
How the Silicon Valley is a bland suburban region, which demonstrates that technology has limitation without culture and aesthetics The Shortage Of Women In Silicon Valley
How the area where the tech elite lives has wilderness preserves, in contrast with their support for mass immigration How the Bay Area has done a better job at Wilderness Conservation than Southern California
Robert’s observation’s about where to build in the Bay Area in response to his interview with Laura Foote Clark of Grow SF
How San Francisco has it’s own unique Aesthetic, and is the most scenic American City
How San Francisco is on a high level aesthetically, but the dominant culture is consumerism mixed in with some cultural leftist views
Robert stayed in Walnut Creek, which is a mid-century car oriented suburb in the process of being retrofited into a walkablle New Urbanist community
Walnut Creek aslo has BART access, and owns more open space per capita than any other community in California 80’s Vaporwave Architecture in Walnut Creek, how historic preservation has neglected 80’s Kitsch, and the occultist origins of Kek in California 80’s culture
Nearby Lafayette, which is an idyllic semi rural town, with quick BART access to the city(the best of both worlds for those who can afford it) The San Francisco Bay Area Renters’ Federation lawsuit against Lafayette, and the debate regarding development and diversity
Whether the Bay Area should be it’s own separate country, state, or broken up into a bunch of small independent city states
Robert Stark, Rabbit, and Alex von Goldstein talk to writer and social critic, James Howard Kunstler
Topics include:
The history of suburbia
James’ theory of history that things happen because they seem like a good idea at the time
How our auto oriented petroleum based society is unsustainable
How bad urban planing has negative psychological and cultural implications
The role of zoning laws, and how zoning can both encourage and prevent suburban sprawl
The future of suburbia, how some will be retrofitted into walkalble communities, while others will be abandoned
The New Urbanist Movement
Mass immigration and overpopulation
Why James does not view skyscrapers and hyper density as viable alternatives to suburbia
Robert’s point that tall structures can have aesthetic value, and how James acknowledges that the early wave of skyscrapers(ex. Singer Building, Woolworth Building, Manhattan Municipal Building) were beautiful structures but historical flukes
How European cities provide the ideal model for urbanism
Examples of sustainable American cities include Portland, Oregon, Charleston, South Carolina, and Savannah, Georgia
Mass Transit, and why James favors investing in existing rail infrastrusture over new high speed rail
The Streetcar suburb, and how they provide a model for New Urbanism
James’ point that even with alternative energy and technological innovation, we still have to downsize and localize our society and economy
How peak oil will lead to economic and political decentralization
How Peak Oil will make Globalization unsustainable
The future of China and the Arab Gulf States
Pre-War Japan as the best example of an advanced civilization without industrialization
The scarcity of water in the future, and how the inland water system will regain it’s value Historic Preservation, how the movement was started in the 1960’s in response to the demolition of Pennsylvania Station in NYC, and the debate about what should be preserved
Rabbit makes the case for mid century modern
Capital scarcities in the future, and how mass development is dependent upon the financial system
James’ four book series set in a post economic collapse America, the World Made by Hand
Robert Stark joined with Rabbit and Krishan Madan interview Laura Foote Clark. Laura is the president of GrowSF, which advocates for affordable and market rate housing in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Topics include:
The Bay Area’s lack of affordable housing
How the housing crisis particularly effects millennials
How integrated public transit provides better access to affordable housing
The severity of the housing crisis, and how a massive increase in housing is needed just to sustain current demands
The miss conception that there is no space to grow in San Francisco, and the twitter series wasteOfUrbanSpace
Mega Developments in the Bay Area, and Laura’s point that focusing on specific projects can distract from the overall housing shortage
Where to build new housing SF grants density bonuses to affordable housing developments
Micro Apartments What Silicon Valley Would Look Like if Tech Companies Built Themselves Cities
Laura’s point that if the Silicon Valley became a more urban environment it would ease the demand for housing in San Francisco
The role that suburbs play in the Bay Area’s housing shortage
How the lack of new housing in cities encourages suburban sprawl
The trend in preference for urban over suburban living among millennials
How Environmental organizations such as the Sierra Club are divided on the housing issue Bay Area’s Greenbelt Alliance and New Urbanism California Proposition 13 Proposition C: San Francisco Affordable Housing
Rent Control
Why Laura would like to see a unified zoning plan for the Bay Area
Whether there is a limit on how many people the Bay Area can accommodate
How the housing issue is the main political divide in the Bay Area
Krishan’s point that tax cuts effect the rich, welfare the poor, but housing can be the political issue of the middle class
The importance of getting involved in local politics
Robert Stark and co-host Rabbit talk to Adam Hengels.
Adam is SVP and Director of Development of PAD, a real estate development start-up that builds communities for young professionals. PAD’s developments will feature micro-apartments and other product innovations.
From Mega-Projects to Micro-Apartments, Adam has brought his development expertise to several high profile projects such as the $5B Barclays Center Arena and Atlantic Yards project in Brooklyn, New York . Adam earned his Masters in Real Estate Development at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and has a BS and MS in Structural Engineering.
Adam is passionate about urbanism, and is known as a pioneer in the Market Urbanism movement. His mission is to improve the urban experience, and overcoming obstacles that prevent aspiring city dwellers from living where they want. He considers the conventional apartment layout to be stale. Product innovations such as micro-apartments are a key part of the next wave in urbanism.
Topics include:
Why Adam advocates for the liberalization of zoning laws
The debate between absolute private property rights vs. the argument that regulations are necessary to prevent landowners from harming their communities
Zoning laws that contribute to suburban sprawl(ex. parking requirements, limits on density in suburbs, and government subsidies of roads and highways) Retrofitting Suburbia
How demographic and economic changes are leading to the decline of suburbia
How to attract middle class families back to cities by improving education and increasing housing supply
New Urbanism
How zoning laws can prevent bad developments, but can also lead to increases in costs of living
Whether zoning laws are necessary to preserve the aesthetic and historic character of cities
How original mixed use communities declined due to zoning regulation and the rise of the automobile
Robert Stark’s point that even though he supports historic preservation and wilderness conservation, he acknowledges that many zoning laws have negative affects on cities and encourage sprawl
How the Lack of New Housing On The Westside of LA Is Causing Gentrification Of East And South LA
Height limit restrictions in cities
Minimum lot size requirements, and how they stifle creativity in urbanism
Whether highrises can provide housing for the middle class, and Adam’s point that new highrises are expensive but over time they decline in cost and eases the overall demand for housing
Whether mass transit can function in a free market, and how New York City’s Subway System started out as private, and Tokyo’s Subway System is semi private Transit-oriented development
Adam’s development of micro apartments and how they can address the housing crisis for young people How zoning laws make it difficult to create micro apartments
The role that Zoning and Urban planning plays in income inequality
